Football Betting Myths
Given the massive popularity of the NFL, it's surprising that the sport is shrouded in so much betting misunderstanding and misconception.
Let's try to separate betting myth from reality:
Myth #1: Betting lines are created to beat the public.
Reality: With the exception of the Super Bowl, the public plays almost no role in the linemaking process. The betting line is created and adjusted to meet the opinion of professional gamblers because it is they, not the casual fan, who bets serious money on the game.
Myth #2: Betting lines get balanced action.
Reality: While the goal is to construct a betting line that is of equal attraction to both favorite and underdog players, it rarely works out that way. More typically, a third of the games on the NFL schedule will have an insignificant amount of betting to cause much of a concern, another third will have active but balanced betting and the remaining third will have mostly one-way action. Traditionally, how the house fares on these lopsided games, called "decisions," determines whether books win or lose.
Myth #3: Bookmakers have inside information that they use to establish "trap" games.
Reality: Nowadays, with nearly everyone having access to the Internet, it's not so much the information as how well that data is interpreted. Bookmakers still may occasionally receive information regarding injuries or weather changes before players, but thanks to technology, that advantage often can be measured in seconds. Many years ago, if a bookmaker found out some significant nugget of data, he might try to lure the bettor to the "wrong" side. Those days are gone as inside information has all but ceased to exist and there is no such thing as a "trap" game.
Myth #4: Bettors have the edge early in the season because oddsmakers and bookmakers need more time to assess the teams.
Reality: More hours are spent analyzing the opening week of the NFL season than any other is. A detailed, in-depth assessment of NFL teams begins more than a month before the opening kickoff. While it's true that teams often do not tip their hand during the preseason or against weak, non-divisional foes, players are in no better position to uncover this deception than are bookmakers. Historically, the first six weeks of the season have been very kind to bookmakers. That's probably not just luck.
Myth #5: Professional gamblers pick their spots, betting just a couple of games a weekend.
Reality: Actually, sophisticated gamblers bet a lot of games. Think of it this way: If you're a successful gambler, why risk serious money on just a few games where a freak play or an official's call can make you a loser? The wider the net is tossed, the less of a factor luck becomes in the outcome.
Myth #6: Wiseguys bet more on games they really like.
Reality: More than any misconception, this myth probably best illustrates the difference between how professionals and amateurs think. A professional gambler believes that if a game is worth betting, it's worth betting significantly. Professional bettors generally wager approximately the same amount on every game they play. The concept of a "best bet" is a media creation that is foreign to professional sports bettors. Professional gamblers believe all their bets are good ones; that's why they make them.
Myth #7: Bettors can win by concentrating on a specific conference, division or region.
Reality: Not likely. It's not enough to have one specific area of expertise because the NFL schedule demands that teams play half their games outside their own division. Knowing the strength of a team is worthless if you don't also know the strength of the opponent.
Myth #8: Statistical wagering trends are important.
Reality: Technical analysis may be popular but it's hardly meaningful. Professional bettors put little faith in the favorite/underdog, home/away pointspread analysis that so often is cited by gridiron "handicappers." It's just another method of backfitting dismissed as irrelevant by wiseguys.
Myth #9: It's never wise to bet on rumors
Reality: Oh, yes it is. For example, if a professional bettor hears a rumor that Peyton Manning has the flu and is too ill to play quarterback for the Colts, he'll quickly bet on Indianapolis' opponent. If the rumor is correct, the gambler has stolen the line on a game that's certain to change. If the rumor is false, then he's played Indianapolis' opponent at a fair price. Since most lines are accurate, the bettor takes little betting risk in chasing a rumor.
By Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com/ . The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering betting: http://www.thegreek.com/ and all other major sports. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com/.Uk Will Swell To 75m As Migrants Raise Births Daily
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Let's try to separate betting myth from reality:
Myth #1: Betting lines are created to beat the public.
Reality: With the exception of the Super Bowl, the public plays almost no role in the linemaking process. The betting line is created and adjusted to meet the opinion of professional gamblers because it is they, not the casual fan, who bets serious money on the game.
Myth #2: Betting lines get balanced action.
Reality: While the goal is to construct a betting line that is of equal attraction to both favorite and underdog players, it rarely works out that way. More typically, a third of the games on the NFL schedule will have an insignificant amount of betting to cause much of a concern, another third will have active but balanced betting and the remaining third will have mostly one-way action. Traditionally, how the house fares on these lopsided games, called "decisions," determines whether books win or lose.
Myth #3: Bookmakers have inside information that they use to establish "trap" games.
Reality: Nowadays, with nearly everyone having access to the Internet, it's not so much the information as how well that data is interpreted. Bookmakers still may occasionally receive information regarding injuries or weather changes before players, but thanks to technology, that advantage often can be measured in seconds. Many years ago, if a bookmaker found out some significant nugget of data, he might try to lure the bettor to the "wrong" side. Those days are gone as inside information has all but ceased to exist and there is no such thing as a "trap" game.
Myth #4: Bettors have the edge early in the season because oddsmakers and bookmakers need more time to assess the teams.
Reality: More hours are spent analyzing the opening week of the NFL season than any other is. A detailed, in-depth assessment of NFL teams begins more than a month before the opening kickoff. While it's true that teams often do not tip their hand during the preseason or against weak, non-divisional foes, players are in no better position to uncover this deception than are bookmakers. Historically, the first six weeks of the season have been very kind to bookmakers. That's probably not just luck.
Myth #5: Professional gamblers pick their spots, betting just a couple of games a weekend.
Reality: Actually, sophisticated gamblers bet a lot of games. Think of it this way: If you're a successful gambler, why risk serious money on just a few games where a freak play or an official's call can make you a loser? The wider the net is tossed, the less of a factor luck becomes in the outcome.
Myth #6: Wiseguys bet more on games they really like.
Reality: More than any misconception, this myth probably best illustrates the difference between how professionals and amateurs think. A professional gambler believes that if a game is worth betting, it's worth betting significantly. Professional bettors generally wager approximately the same amount on every game they play. The concept of a "best bet" is a media creation that is foreign to professional sports bettors. Professional gamblers believe all their bets are good ones; that's why they make them.
Myth #7: Bettors can win by concentrating on a specific conference, division or region.
Reality: Not likely. It's not enough to have one specific area of expertise because the NFL schedule demands that teams play half their games outside their own division. Knowing the strength of a team is worthless if you don't also know the strength of the opponent.
Myth #8: Statistical wagering trends are important.
Reality: Technical analysis may be popular but it's hardly meaningful. Professional bettors put little faith in the favorite/underdog, home/away pointspread analysis that so often is cited by gridiron "handicappers." It's just another method of backfitting dismissed as irrelevant by wiseguys.
Myth #9: It's never wise to bet on rumors
Reality: Oh, yes it is. For example, if a professional bettor hears a rumor that Peyton Manning has the flu and is too ill to play quarterback for the Colts, he'll quickly bet on Indianapolis' opponent. If the rumor is correct, the gambler has stolen the line on a game that's certain to change. If the rumor is false, then he's played Indianapolis' opponent at a fair price. Since most lines are accurate, the bettor takes little betting risk in chasing a rumor.
By Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com/ . The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering betting: http://www.thegreek.com/ and all other major sports. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com/.Uk Will Swell To 75m As Migrants Raise Births Daily
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Banks County News Mainstreet
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Ut Longhorns Austin
Why You Need A Vehicle Warranty Benton Evening
Anger Management Instructor Arrested For Domestic Battery News Post Tribune
Online Loan
Uk 39 S Aviva Targets 350 Mln Stg Yr In Cost Savings Reuters Uk
cheap insurance
How You Can Offer Help To Older Family Caregivers Inside Bay
Can Steve Francis Accept Reserve Role On Contending Houston
Auto Insurance Quotes
Peoplemaking Books Anger
Kathleen Pender Tales Of Buying Property South Of The Border San Francisco
Glens Falls Budget Features New Items The Post
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A History Of Home Video Games From Atari To Xbox Playstation And Wii
S Amp P Lowers Kraft Credit Ratings Cnnmoney Com
best online casino
Current Mortgage Rates Mortgage Lender Interest Rate Survey
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Silver Cos Tax Credit Investors File Protest The Free Lance Star
American Voices Notable Quotes From The Week In Business Bloomberg
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South Carolina Student Loan Corporation Scslc Exists For The Sole Purpose Of Making Higher Education
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Crocotta Energy Inc Q3 2007 Financial And Operating Results Ccnmatthews Via Yahoo
Get Commercial Mortgage Loan Quotes From Multiple Lenders
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Boat Insurance Boatus
How To Find A Cheap Personal Loan Motley Fool Uk
Verdict Reached In First Katrina Insurance Trial Nbc 5
Tabb Pleads Not Guilty In Man S Slaying Outside Bar The Buffalo
Annual Travel Insurance Cheap Holiday Insurance
Sainsbury S Check Car Insurance Quality
Eliminate Credit Card Debt The Bradford
Quickclick Loans
House Passes Tax Law Patch Contra Costa
Mortgage Leads At Eleadz Com Internet Mortgage Leads Fha Mortgage Lead Generation
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Bush Cites Measure 50 Voters Sick Of Tax And Spend The Oregonian Oregonlive Com
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